The Covid-19 pandemic is likely to last up to two years and may not be halted until around 70% of the world’s population is immune, US medical experts have warned.
The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota (Cidrap) published a report yesterday warning: “Whichever scenario the pandemic follows (assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures), we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.”
The worldwide death toll from Covid-19 sadly stands at 233,688 people currently, with 63,746 occurring in the US at the time of publication.
Cidrap said there is “no crystal ball” on the future of the pandemic or what the “end game” for controlling it will be.
However, as the pandemic wanes, the report said it is likely SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, will continue to circulate in the human population. It added the virus will “synchronise to a seasonal pattern” with diminished severity over time, as with other less pathogenic coronaviruses.
The report advised states, territories, and health authorities to plan for the worst-case scenario including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.
It said government officials should also develop concrete plans, including triggers for reintroducing mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.
The full report can be read here.
