Paul Fulcher, Head of European ALM structuring, Nomura
Fulcher heads the European asset-liability management (ALM) structuring business for Nomura, having joined the firm in 2012. His swift and incisive analysis of the emerging details of Solvency II – and its effect on insurers – has become essential reading in the market.
Who or what has inspired your work?
Ultimately experience is the greatest teacher. Spending the late 90s in Tokyo as Japanese life insurers wrestled with low interest rates is proving very relevant to Europe today, and living through the 2008-9 financial crisis while working at a bank taught me more about risk management than I ever would have learned from a textbook.
Who do you most admire in the field of risk management?
Joseph, who invented the countercyclical buffer, saving the Egyptians and the nascent Israelites from a famine, and simultaneously enriching the state coffers.
What have you learnt about communicating risk?
Behavioural economics has a lot to teach us about risk management and communicating risk, although I wouldn't claimed to have learnt it all yet. As per the old joke, once I heard about confirmation bias, I started seeing it everywhere.
What are the major challenges ahead?
The next big risk management challenge is likely to be the one we haven't planned for. But in terms of areas already on the radar screen, the japanification of Europe – ALM in a low interest rate environment – and managing liquidity and collateral risk will be two key areas for the coming years.
What will be the next big development in risk management?
In addition to greater use of behavioural economics techniques as mentioned, I suspect the "big data" movement and real-time risk management will become a key trend, albeit one with as many challenges as benefits.
What are your other interests?
Spending time with my wife and three young daughters. Learning Korean. Supporting AFC Wimbledon - a fans-owned, community-based club, hopefully soon to return to Plough Lane. Reading literary fiction from around the world.