Catastrophe modellers play an increasingly strategic role in exploring emerging markets and shaping product opportunities, as well as performing their traditional role of understanding the financial impacts of natural and man-made perils.

Impact Forecasting, Aon's cat modelling division, impressed the judging panel with its 135-plus models and ELEMENTS platform that enables modellers to obtain new insights and manage the modelling process from start to finish.

The ability to alter windstorm and flood models to understand the effects of climate change has become crucial for insurers, not only to ensure they price correctly, but also to respond to regulatory demands to show how climate affects their business.

Climate change solutions are integrated into Impact Forecasting's suite, and the team aims to provide an independent view of climate change by working with academic experts at the forefront of climate science. "The team learns from, and contributes to, the latest research outputs which in many cases are specific to a given region and peril," the firm says.

Among its updates for 2023 and 2024, Impact Forecasting's team has introduced climate change quantification features for its flood models for Canada, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and Austria. The firm says all future flood models will include a climate change component, as this has become a standard feature in Impact Forecasting's flood model development.

Another recent update has been the expansion of the Europe Severe Convective Storm (SCS) model.

SCS was previously considered a "secondary" peril behind hurricane and earthquake events, but is now an important source of losses for insurers. Impact Forecasting's Europe SCS model now extends to Slovakia, Hungary, Italy and Switzerland to cover 13 countries in total, and incorporates the latest climate insight as well as 19 historic events.

To further help insurers develop their product and pricing strategies, Impact Forecasting has launched a range of hazard and risk datasets, which it is expanding on regular basis. Insurers can access the hazard and risk information through their underwriting systems, using Impact Forecasting's API.

Finally, Impact Forecasting has also responded to insurer demands for multi-model views of risk, and lowering the cost of cat modelling, by focusing on using open data standards and integrating the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework's financial engine into ELEMENTS.