Covid-19 has presented a huge challenge to longevity modelling. The extraordinary number of deaths is just one aspect life insurers have to deal with: there are also major uncertainties about the long-term health impacts of Covid-19, whether mutations will lead to further waves of infection, and how vaccination programmes might affect those trends, for example.

To help insurers in this difficult environment, Hymans Robertson has delivered several Covid-19 related projects, and its commitment to helping clients understand how the pandemic will impact longevity means it was the clear winner in this category.

The consultancy's initiatives have included a new Covid-19 modelling proposition as well as a mortality benchmarking survey involving 28 re/insurers and their insights on the pandemic.

Hymans Robertson also held three webinars on Covid-19 in 2020 and has been producing a weekly blog on the pandemic.

Andrew Gaches, a partner and head of longevity at Hymans Robertson, says: "Covid-19 is very much a mortality-driven risk, but its immediate impacts [on insurers] were operational and economic."

Gaches says the pandemic means mortality projections will be a real challenge over the next year or two.

He comments: "Existing models often need modification when extremes happen, and Covid-19 is no exception to this. You can no longer rely solely on short-term history to project the near-term future.

"What you need to do is ensure you are sufficiently considering the fundamentals and the real-world drivers of longevity change in conjunction with mathematical extrapolation."

Climate change modelling has also been important area for Hymans Robertson and it recently supported a large insurer in developing longevity scenarios for a warming planet.

Gaches says climate change may negatively affect mortality trends in many ways.

"Potential impacts could be global crop failure, food shortages, an influx of diseases and global economic damage."